Both Logistic and Gompertz models are commonly used to model growth that saturates over time, such as: Customer adoption, Product uptake, Population growth
They are S-shaped (sigmoidal) curves that capture initial exponential growth followed by slowing as a saturation point is approached.
Summary
- Both models are sigmoidal growth models suitable for customer growth or population dynamics
- The key difference is symmetry vs asymmetry of growth
- K (carrying capacity) is the critical parameter to define saturation
- Early data can help estimate growth rate and K, guiding which model to choose
Saturation Effects
- Both models incorporate a carrying capacity (K) that represents the maximum attainable size
- Saturation occurs as growth slows when approaching K
- Choosing K is critical: it sets the upper bound of your forecast
- If K is unknown, it can be estimated from early growth trends or inferred from historical analogues
Choosing Between Logistic and Gompertz
| Aspect | Logistic | Gompertz |
|---|---|---|
| Curve symmetry | Symmetric | Asymmetric |
| Early growth | Faster | Slower, more gradual |
| Inflection point | At 50% of K | Before 50% of K |
| Use case | Uniform adoption | Cautious early adoption / biological growth |
| Interpretability | Simple | Slightly more flexible |
Rule of Thumb:
- Pick Logistic if growth is roughly symmetric and you expect early acceleration.
- Pick Gompertz if early growth is slow and adoption accelerates later.